New research, February 5-11, 2018
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.
The Figure is from paper #61.
"Misinformation can have significant societal consequences. For example, misinformation about climate change has confused the public and stalled support for mitigation policies. When people lack the expertise and skill to evaluate the science behind a claim, they typically rely on heuristics such as substituting judgment about something complex (i.e. climate science) with judgment about something simple (i.e. the character of people who speak about climate science) and are therefore vulnerable to misleading information. Inoculation theory offers one approach to effectively neutralize the influence of misinformation. Typically, inoculations convey resistance by providing people with information that counters misinformation. In contrast, we propose inoculating against misinformation by explaining the fallacious reasoning within misleading denialist claims. We offer a strategy based on critical thinking methods to analyse and detect poor reasoning within denialist claims. This strategy includes detailing argument structure, determining the truth of the premises, and checking for validity, hidden premises, or ambiguous language. Focusing on argument structure also facilitates the identification of reasoning fallacies by locating them in the reasoning process. Because this reason-based form of inoculation is based on general critical thinking methods, it offers the distinct advantage of being accessible to those who lack expertise in climate science. We applied this approach to 42 common denialist claims and find that they all demonstrate fallacious reasoning and fail to refute the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic global warming. This comprehensive deconstruction and refutation of the most common denialist claims about climate change is designed to act as a resource for communicators and educators who teach climate science and/or critical thinking."
"Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets. Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries’ (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC. If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2 °C temperature target would nearly be depleted. Propositions about ‘coal’s terminal decline’ may thereby be premature."
"Relative to a high-CO2 world, solar geoengineering, via cooling the surface ocean, would increase CO2 solubility, enhancing oceanic CO2 uptake. However, the effect from geoengineering-induced changes in ocean circulation and marine biology would be more complicated. Solar geoengineering would have a small effect on surface ocean acidification, but could accelerate acidification in the deep ocean. Solar geoengineering would reduce atmospheric CO2, but the relative contribution from the ocean sink and land sink is uncertain."
"It was observed that the residential sector generates the highest GHG emissions, followed by the agriculture/fisheries and commercial sector. In the residential sector, LPG, kerosene, and fuelwood are the major contributors of emissions, whereas diesel is the main contributor to the commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors. CO2e emissions have been observed to rise at a cumulative annual growth rate of 0.6%, 9.11%, 7.94% and 5.26% for the residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors, respectively."
Temperature and precipitation
"We find that temperatures in the warming hole are associated with changes in climate indices over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are likely related to changes in the waviness of the jet-stream over the eastern U.S. We find evidence that the jet-stream exhibited a shift in the late 1950’s coincident with the start of the warming hole, resulting in a greater tendency of northerly winds to bring cool air to the southern U.S."
"This paper examines the characteristics of the heatwave that affected western and central Europe in June 2017. Using a novel algorithm, we show that its extension, intensity and persistence were comparable to those of other European mega-heatwaves but it occurred earlier in the summer. The most affected area was Iberia, which experienced devastating forest fires with human casualties and the warmest temperatures of the reanalysis period from daily to seasonal scales. The peak of the mega-heatwave displayed an unprecedented warm air intrusion due to a record-breaking subtropical ridge with signatures closer to those of July and August. The atmospheric circulation was the main triggering factor of the event. However, thermodynamical changes of the last decades made a substantial contribution to the event, by increasing the likelihood of surpassing high temperature thresholds. This episode could be a good example of a coming future, with high-summer mega-heatwaves occurring earlier."
"No evidence was found for a major control by ENSO over local monthly, seasonal, and yearly rainfall for any climate regions on the island. These results indicate that ENSO is not a main factor causing droughts in Puerto Rico for the study period and thus should not be a factor in predicting the potential for local dry periods or large precipitation deficits in the future."
Climate forcings and feedbacks
"Throughout the 21st century, multi-model ensemble mean SAF increases from 0.37 to 0.42 Wm−2K−1. These results suggest models’ mean decadal scale SAFs are good estimates of their century scale SAFs if there is at least 0.5K temperature change. Persistent SAF into the late 21st century indicates ongoing capacity for Arctic albedo decline despite there being less sea-ice. If the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble results are representative of the Earth, we cannot expect decreasing Arctic sea-ice extent to suppress SAF in the 21st century."
"Our results show distinct temporal variations at three timescales: regular thaw settlement within each summer, strong interannual variability that is characterized by a sub-decadal subsidence trend followed by a brief uplift trend, and a secular subsidence trend of 0.26 ± 0.02 cm year−1 during 2004 and 2015."
"Inertia means that permafrost carbon loss may continue for many years after anthropogenic emissions have stabilized. Simulations suggest that between 225 and 345 Gt C (10th to 90th percentile) are in thawed permafrost and may eventually be released to the atmosphere for stabilization target of 2 °C. This value is 60–100 Gt C less for a 1.5 °C target. The inclusion of permafrost carbon will add to the demands on negative emission technologies which are already present in most low emissions scenarios."
Atmospheric and oceanic circulation
"We find that the AMO is linked to continental warming, Arctic sea ice retreat, and an Atlantic precipitation shift. Low clouds decrease globally. We find no distinct multidecadal spectral peak in the AMO over the last 2 millennia, suggesting that human activities may have enhanced the AMO in the modern era."
Climate change impacts
"Voluntary buyouts are a policy tool in the US that has the potential to help communities adapt to SLR. While buyouts have been resisted in the past, there is some indication that they are becoming more politically popular. Despite increased popularity, communities in Alaska who need to relocate because of repetitive flooding and sea level rise do not meet the basic requirements of the buyout program in a way that makes this policy applicable to their situation. We find that notions of the market, property, and individualism are ideological assumptions inherent to the buyout policies, which ultimately serve to disadvantage tribal communities as they attempt to relocate as an adaptation strategy to climate change."
"Using historical data on irrigation, rice yields, and precipitation, I show that irrigated locations experience much lower damages from increasing precipitation variability, suggesting that the expansion of irrigation could protect Indian agriculture from this future threat. However, accounting for physical water availability shows that under current irrigation practices, sustainable use of irrigation water can mitigate less than a tenth of the climate change impact. Moreover, if India continues to deplete its groundwater resources, the impacts of increased variability are likely to increase by half."
"Our findings suggest that, besides the effect of drought in the late 18th century, large-scale forest mortality may be an additional factor that further deteriorated the environment and increased the intensity of dust storms."
"We show that CO2 sequestration is negatively affected by both an increase in temperature and the resulting decrease in nutrient availability. This will impact the biogeochemical cycle of carbon and may have a positive feedback on rising CO2 levels."
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