New research, January 8-14, 2018

New research, January 8-14, 2018

http://ift.tt/2DoVY0F

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The Figure is from paper #30.

Climate change impacts

Impacts to mankind

1. Structural property losses from tornadoes in Florida

2. Evaluating Efficacy of Landsat-Derived Environmental Covariates for Predicting Malaria Distribution in Rural Villages of Vhembe District, South Africa

"The study has shown that suitable habitats of malaria vectors are generally found within a radius of 10 km in semi-arid environments, and this insight can be useful to aid efforts aimed at putting in place evidence-based preventative measures against malaria infections. Furthermore, this result is important in understanding malaria dynamics under the current climate and environmental changes. The study has also demonstrated the use of Landsat data and the ability to extract environmental conditions which favour the distribution of malaria vector (An. arabiensis) such as the canopy moisture content in vegetation, which serves as a surrogate for rainfall."

3. Benefits of increasing transpiration efficiency in wheat under elevated CO2 for rainfed regions

Impacts to nature

4. The Biosphere Under Potential Paris Outcomes

"We find that CC may cause major impacts in landscapes covering between 16% and 65% of the global ice-free land surface by the end of the century, depending on the success or failure of achieving the Paris goal. Accounting for LUC impacts in addition, this number increases to 38%–80%. Thus, CC will likely replace LUC as the major driver of ecosystem change unless global warming can be limited to well below 2°C. We also find a substantial risk that impacts of agricultural expansion may offset some of the benefits of ambitious climate protection for ecosystems."

5. Impact of Earth greening on the terrestrial water cycle

6. Trees Tolerate an Extreme Heatwave via Sustained Transpirational Cooling and Increased Leaf Thermal Tolerance

7. Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predict regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

8. Climate sensitivity functions and net primary production: A framework for incorporating climate mean and variability

9. Intensity and temporality of airborne Quercus pollen in the southwest Mediterranean area: Correlation with meteorological and phenoclimatic variables, trends and possible adaptation to climate change

10. Ocean acidification of a coastal Antarctic marine microbial community reveals a critical threshold for CO2 tolerance in phytoplankton productivity

"Our study identifies a threshold for CO2 tolerance in the phytoplankton community between 953 and 1140 μatm of CO2, above which productivity declines."

11. Are North American bird species’ geographic ranges mainly determined by climate?

12. Strong evidence for changing fish reproductive phenology under climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau

"Using constructed water-air temperature relationships and historical air temperature records, we found that the reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis was strongly advanced in the spring during the 1970s and 1990s, while the increased growing season length in the 2000s was mainly due to a delayed onset of winter. The reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis advanced 2.9 days per decade on average from the 1970s to 2000s, and may have effects on recruitment success and population dynamics of this species and other biota in the ecosystem via the food web."

13. Dealing with climate science denialism: experiences from confrontations with other forms of pseudoscience

"Climate science denialism is a form of pseudoscience. This contribution provides proposals for how to counter it, based on previous research on the demarcation between science and pseudoscience and on the author’s experience of tackling other forms of pseudoscience. Science denialism has much in common with other variants of pseudoscience, but it also has characteristics of its own. In particular, it is much more prone than other forms of pseudoscience to seek conflicts with genuine science. Like other science denialists, those attacking climate science have fabricated a large number of fake controversies in issues where there is no authentic scientific controversy. The defence of climate science against science denial has to take this into account. There is no reason to accept the denialists’ agenda or to treat their claims as legitimate alternatives to science. Climate science should primarily be presented to the public in ways that are independent of denialist activities, rather than reactively in response to those activities. Disclosures of the strategies, motives and funding of denialism are important contributions to the public understanding of the fake controversies. It is also important to document the scientific consensus and make it known. The public defence of climate science is an important and urgent undertaking, and active contributions by as many scientists as possible are needed."

14. A three-year experiment of annual methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the subtropical permanently flooded rice paddy fields of China: Emission factor, temperature sensitivity and fertilizer nitrogen effect

15. An investigation into the early stages of New Zealand’s voluntary carbon market

16. Estimating water–food–ecosystem trade-offs for the global negative emission scenario (IPCC-RCP2.6)

17. Optimizing Messaging to Reduce Red Meat Consumption

"Taste and quality were the most important motivators for eating meat, while moral/ethical factors were the least. Forty-nine percent of respondents indicated they would reduce red meat intake after exposure to an information only message, while the social norms frame was more effective than others (χ2). Awareness of the environmental effects increased significantly after messaging for all 13 impacts."

18. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in China 2012: Inventory and supply chain analysis

19. How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways?

20. Critical issues of energy efficient and new energy vehicles development in China

21. A comparative study on household level energy consumption and related emissions from renewable (biomass) and non-renewable energy sources in Bangladesh

22. Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

23. Exploratory study of atmospheric methane enhancements derived from natural gas use in the Houston urban area

24. High-resolution spatial distribution and associated uncertainties of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector

25. Oil demand forecasting for China: a fresh evidence from structural time series analysis

26. A socio-technical framework for examining the consequences of deforestation: A case study of wind project development in Northern Europe

27. The estimated impact of California’s urban water conservation mandate on electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

28. Temporal restrictions on emissions trading and the implications for the carbon futures market: Lessons from the EU emissions trading scheme

29. Correlation Lengths for Estimating the Large-Scale Carbon and Heat Content of the Southern Ocean

Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

30. Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

"Results show that these two TPW trends from independent observations are larger than previous estimates and are a strong indication of the positive water vapor–temperature feedback on a warming planet."

31. Sources of intermodel spread in the lapse rate and water vapor feedbacks

32. Isolating the Liquid Cloud Response to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Variability Using Spaceborne Lidar Observations

33. Cloud-assisted retrieval of lower stratospheric water vapor from nadir view satellite measurements

Cryosphere

34. Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium ice sheet volume

"The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature." … "For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr−1 (24–59 Gt yr−1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10–25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10–0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold."

35. Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

36. Using satellite laser ranging to measure ice mass change in Greenland and Antarctica

37. Linking the modern distribution of biogenic proxies in High Arctic Greenland shelf sediments to sea ice, primary production and Arctic-Atlantic inflow

38. The Greater Caucasus Glacier Inventory (Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan)

"Glacier margins were mapped manually and reveal that in 1960 the mountains contained 2349 glaciers with a total glacier surface area of 1674.9 ± 70.4 km2. By 1986, glacier surface area had decreased to 1482.1 ± 64.4 km2 (2209 glaciers), and by 2014 to 1193.2 ± 54.0 km2 (2020 glaciers). This represents a 28.8 ± 4.4 % (481 ± 21.2 km2) or 0.53 % yr−1 reduction in total glacier surface area between 1960 and 2014 and an increase in the rate of area loss since 1986 (0.69 % yr−1) compared to 1960–1986 (0.44 % yr−1). Glacier mean size decreased from 0.70 km2 in 1960 to 0.66 km2 in 1986 and to 0.57 km2 in 2014."

39. Recent glacier mass balance and area changes in the Kangri Karpo Mountains from DEMs and glacier inventories

"This study presents diminishing ice cover in the Kangri Karpo Mountains by 24.9 % ± 2.2 % or 0.71 % ± 0.06 % a−1 from 1980 to 2015 but with nine glaciers advancing. By utilizing geodetic methods, glaciers have experienced a mean mass deficit of 0.46 ± 0.08 m w.e. a−1 from 1980 to 2014. These glaciers showed slight accelerated shrinkage and significant accelerated mass loss during 2000–2015 compared to that during 1980–2000, which is consistent with the tendency of climate warming."

40. The Khurdopin glacier surge revisited – extreme flow velocities and formation of a dammed lake in 2017

41. Some mean atmospheric characteristics for snowfall occurrences in southern Brazil

42. Estimating active layer thickness and volumetric water content from ground penetrating radar measurements in Barrow, Alaska

43. Vegetation can strongly regulate permafrost degradation at its southern edge through changing surface freeze-thaw processes

Temperature and Precipitation

44. Urban Heat Island studies in South Asia: A critical review

45. Shifting the urban heat island clock in a megacity: a case study of Hong Kong

46. Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

47. Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

48. Have human activities changed the frequencies of absolute extreme temperatures in eastern China?

49. Detectability of Decadal Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Changes over North America

50. Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960–2014

51. Rainfall variability over Malawi during the late 19th century

52. Projected changes in future climate over the Midwest and Great Lakes region using downscaled CMIP5 ensembles

53. Multi-scale variability in North American summer maximum temperatures and modulations from the North Atlantic simulated by an AGCM

Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation

54. Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific decadal variability under anthropogenic forcing

55. Impact of climate change on Siberian High and wintertime air pollution in China in past two decades

Extreme Events

56. Heat Stress Changes over East Asia under 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Target

57. What has controlled the poleward migration of annual averaged location of tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity over the western North Pacific since 1961?

58. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

59. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to Ebro Delta (Spain)

60. Revising return periods for record events in a climate event attribution context

61. The characteristics of extreme cold events and cold air outbreaks in the eastern United States

Carbon Cycle

62. Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions

"Carbon models suggest the permafrost carbon feedback (soil carbon emissions from permafrost thaw) acts as a slow, unobservable leak. We investigate if permafrost temperature provides an observable signal to detect feedbacks. We find a slow carbon feedback in warm sub-Arctic permafrost soils, but potentially rapid feedback in cold Arctic permafrost. This is surprising since the cold permafrost region is dominated by tundra and underlain by deep, cold permafrost thought impervious to such changes."

63. MODIS-based estimates of global terrestrial ecosystem respiration

64. Modelling the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of soil CO2 exchange in a semiarid ecosystem with high plant–interspace heterogeneity

65. Estimating regional-scale methane flux and budgets using CARVE aircraft measurements over Alaska

Hydrosphere

66. Salinity trends within the upper layers of the subpolar North Atlantic

67. Assessing water resources under climate change in high-altitude catchments: a methodology and an application in the Italian Alps

Other papers

68. Atmospheric depositions of natural and anthropogenic trace elements on the Guliya ice cap (northwestern Tibetan Plateau) during the last 340 years

69. C4 photosynthesis evolved in warm climates but promoted migration to cooler ones

70. Glacial cycles influence marine methane hydrate formation

71. Temperature and mineral dust variability recorded in two low-accumulation Alpine ice cores over the last millennium

Superforest,Climate Change

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